there China They will attack Taiwan? To the CIA chief, William Burns, no doubt. The discourse is no longer “if,” but “when” Beijing will launch an attack on Taipei. At the Aspen Security Forum, Burns indicated that the risks of a Chinese intervention in what Dragon considers a “rebellious province” are low. Be careful though, because these Risks “Seems to be increasing decade“The question is no longer whether the Chinese leadership will use force against Taiwan in the coming years, but when and how,” the US intelligence chief said. Burns then cited the war in Ukraine. It explains that there may be a “problem” with China’s course Conflict in Ukraine, as it would be evidence that “quick and decisive victories were not achieved”, at least not without first throwing sufficient military weight into the conflict. From here, according to Burns, there takes shape Lesson Ukrainians learned from Chinese leadership Xi Jinping. “I think the Ukrainian lesson for the Chinese leadership is that in order to win, it is necessary to unite a major hegemonic force, including adequate preparation for “control of the information space” and inevitable economic sanctions,” Burns added.
Clouds on the horizon
For weeks, ominous clouds have been gathering on Taiwan’s horizon. Not only to Burns’s statements, but also to statements by the Chinese Ambassador to the United States, who reiterated Beijing’s view, a “Reunification In contrast to the calm “Washington’s view, above all, The American Chamber speaker possible trip, Nancy PelosiAugust in Taiwan. “No conflict, no war: this is the most important consensus between China and the US,” the senior diplomat said. Kin Gang, while the US seemed to be bemoaning the fact that it was “gradually moving away” from its exclusive Beijing recognition policy. As for Pelosi’s hypothetical trip to Taiwan, the news has angered and alarmed China. Joe Biden. “The military thinks it’s a bad idea,” the US president said. Last May 23, Biden announced that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese invasion, a move that should be reversed.Strategic ambiguity“It would have remained unchanged. Biden is expected to speak with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in the next few days. We’ll see if the meeting takes place and if a face-to-face conversation between the two helps defuse the now tense situation.
The odds of an invasion
Rhetoric of a Chinese “invasion” of Taiwan has made an alarming comeback in official speeches. But is it really plausible to expect such a move from Beijing? Of course, Dragon sees Taiwan as its territorial extension, a rebel province and nothing else, while Taipei feels free and happy, at least in words, protected by the US military umbrella. Despite China’s annexations and numerous declarations, it is difficult to imagine Beijing attempting to invade the island, at least in the short term and without “provocation.” Returning to Pelosi’s trip, the Biden administration fears China may seek an imposition. No-go area Aerial around Taiwan to prevent the Speaker of the House from visiting the island. For their part, Chinese state media warned that Pelosi’s flight to Taiwan would be “accompanied” by Chinese military aircraft. The U.S. Department of Defense also “feared that our aircraft might Pulled down From China or something like that.”
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