Turkish aid to circumvent Putin’s economic sanctions. Doubts of triangles – Corriere.it

from Federico Fubini

A cross-examination of trade data for Russia suggests that massive triangulation takes place on this route to avoid sanctions.

Russia manages to avoid them by twenty countries Sanctions imposed by democratic governments From the start of the war. Among these, the TurkeyThe China They are United Arab StatesAs well as various former Soviet republics that have been at the center of suspicion since the beginning: the list includes: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and even GeorgiaRussia launched a military occupation in 2008 and at the start of the conflict in February, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in support of Ukraine.

This is a fact that many Italian companies already know: A look at trade flows Within a few months, Turkey in particular has gradually become a platform through which many exporters continue to deliver Made in Italy in very large quantities to Russia, even though this practice is illegal.

But let’s go properly. The International Proceedings for Violations of Sanctions There will be hundreds of those twenty countries. They will be the focus of an upcoming report by a panel of experts led by Michael McFall, former US ambassador to Moscow, and Andriy Yermak, head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Politburo. Informed observers predict the Yermak-McFaul panel will recommend Western governments close loopholes, threatening secondary sanctions on countries that help Russia through the trade triangle network.

This is not easy given the institutional dimensions of some of the countries involved. Cross-examination of data on transfers from Italy of course Turkey and claims that massive triangulation is taking place along the route from Turkey to Russia to avoid sanctions.. It’s hard to explain the apparent strangeness of the last few months any other way. First, Turkey was the country last June Italy records the largest increase in exports by far: more than 87% year-on-year, sales of up to 1.4 billion euros in one month; This is an increase of 500 million per month compared to February and a unique case of sales in Turkey for more than ten years, which have always remained below one billion per month (according to the Istat statistical office). The surge is all the more surprising because the Turkish lira has nearly halved its value against the euro over the past year, making imports from Italy more expensive for local companies.

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But export data from Ankara’s statistics office, Turkstat, may have an explanation. Between February and June this year, Turkish exports to Russia exploded, with growth of around $400 million per month. Among Turkey’s more than twenty major trading partners, Russia has been the fastest-growing destination since the start of the war (up to 68% of Turkish sales) and in the past year (up to 46%).. Even other countries that reject sanctions against Moscow, such as China, Vietnam or Malaysia, now export less to the deep Russian economy. On the other hand, the flow of goods and services from Turkey to Russia has never been stronger, as has the flow from Italy to Turkey. The volume of increase in trade is similar, exceeding $300 to $400 million a month.

These are clues, not evidence. But if Italian companies are really using Turkey as a platform to circumvent sanctions and illegally open the Russian market, the current government in Rome cannot afford to ignore this issue. And to the next.

July 31, 2022 (July 31, 2022 Change | 08:21)

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