Historian: NATO demonstrates extraordinary solidarity China has second thoughts about alliance with Moscow, I do not think it will provide military assistance to Russia
TheThe world is not divided into left and right, but democracy and Dictatorships. China and Russia are the engine of the second front. Putin has been at the center of this anti-democratic network for many years and has been sending troops everywhere from Syria to Venezuela. Now try to crush Ukraine. I firmly believe, I have been saying this since 2014, the decisive battle is taking place here. Independent nations and dictatorial regimes. The result is more important than the fate of Ukraine, because it gives a strong impetus to democracy or dictatorship, depending on who prevails.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall and Soviet rule, Historian Francis Fukuyama He deceived the West by attracting his own The end of history
: An article describing liberal democracy as the cornerstone of the ideological evolution of mankind. Thirty years later – and after many course revisions – Fukuyama firmly believes in absolute value. Liberal democratic idealsBut he agrees with that as well To protect them, you have to go over the barriers. I interview him, briefly after returning to Stanford, California, after a trip to the Balkans, he leaves for London, where he presents his new book. Liberalism and its dissatisfaction.
In your recent intervention, you define Putin’s attack as a great tragedy, a dangerous threat, but a great opportunity for the revival of liberal democracies.
Putin has made a big mistake in the assessment. He planned to capture Ukraine in two days, The fierce opposition of those people to the world, especially the youth, showed little interest in the ideals of freedom and democracy, showing the importance of these values and, above all, the importance of protecting them. Dictators are ready for anything to suffocate them. Awareness of the West will cost him a lot, but Putin could still win, albeit to some extent: if he can overthrow Zhelensky’s Democratic GovernmentWill show that military force can achieve great political results: a precursor to other regimes that aspire to follow the same path.
How can one trust the validity of NATO to say no to sanctions from Orbin to Hungary to Turkey?
NATO has rediscovered an extraordinary unity that no one expected. A valuable asset. Definitely not to be believed Orbn, Always ready for the most dishonest games and there are other issues, for example that would have been allowed by the EU in Poland. Now Warsaw welcomes the Alliance’s advanced frontier and millions of refugees, and that document will be put on hold. The problems remain, however. But the overall attitude of European governments today is different. After all, radical and rapid change is overweight in Germany: 40 years of reversal Ostpolitik, Doubling military spending, giving arms to Ukraine. This war can create the conditions for the re-establishment of NATO and Europe on a new basis. Things that could not have been imagined until yesterday are possible. If Macron is re-elected, France and Germany could actually promote what is known as the so-called European independence security initiative.
To be reliable, shouldn’t a European defense also have a nuclear barrier? Germany with the atomic bomb?
Nuclear prevention is important, but both countries already have Europe that is enough. Then the US NATO umbrella will always be there. I do not think Germany wants to become a nuclear power. The important thing is to have a regular enough military force to defend itself and for missions like the Balkans.
Aren’t you afraid that China may thwart the attempt to isolate Putin militarily and even economically?
After lightly promising unlimited alliances to Putin, China is in second thought. I do not see any definite evidence of a real positive response to Russia’s request for military assistance. They will be wary: Sanctions against Russia They will control their intentions towards Taiwan and the defeats of the Moscow troops will make them think too. China has invested heavily in the military and has advanced technology, but that does not mean that its armed forces are adequately operational.
Not even afraid to think around Russia and China Can it be by the Western opposition front of developing countries, which opposes sanctions that have a cost to all, not just on the economic front?
There is dissatisfaction with the West in many parts of the world, but it mainly depends on errors such as the invasion of Iraq or diplomatic friction. I come from northern Macedonia: the intense hatred of Europe does not depend on the rejection of liberal democratic values, but on the fact that Skopje applied to join the EU 17 years ago and then closed many doors in its face. Method .. I do not believe in the birth of a business meeting independent of the United States and Europe: the payment system is still made up of almost dollars and euros. Transforming a global financial network like Swift into China is not that easy. He can do it, but not in the short term.
Is there anything wrong with blaming NATO?
It was a big mistake for Georgia and Ukraine to enter into an alliance in 2008, but I am not one of those like John Myersheimer, the political scientist who blames Russia for the Russian occupation.NATO expansion. It is rooted in the powerful historical narrative spread by Putin and his desire to abolish the European order that emerged after the Cold War. Not only in Ukraine, but throughout Eastern Europe.
Fear of increasing nuclear use?
I do not think the nuclear threat is very credible. Everyone, including Putin, has realized that the atomic bomb is not a useful weapon to achieve political goals. I fear the use of chemical weapons as a desperate reaction to the Kremlin being locked in a corner.
Thanks to its drones used in various conflicts, Turkey has become a regional power. He is now arming Ukraine but negotiating with Putin, who has not given him permission. What sport does he play?
Turkey thinks there is A special relationship with Moscow. There is no good but good news since Turkey shot down a Russian jet in Syria. Erdogan is upset that Putin has consulted with him. I think he did not care that Moscow was in trouble. Thanks to the deadly Turkish drones used by the Ukrainians, now everyone wants to buy.
March 21, 2022 (Change on March 21, 2022 | 22:47)
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