War in Ukraine, Minsk troops on the border. Plan to save the Azovs

East West. From besieged steel mills Like MariupolWhere Ukrainians Plans to release the militantsAzovHotels bombed by Russians with hypersonic missiles a Odessa. Up to the uncertain black hole of Transnistria And the threat from the north Lukashenko Who concentrated Belarusian forces on the border. The war in Ukraine is developing with various eruptions. They defined a unique picture, as US intelligence summed it up: two rivals could not be said to be close to victory at this time, and a long and tense confrontation obscured many dangers.

Putin, US intelligence on martial law and transnistria: “Tsar’s long war”

One thing above all: Vladimir Putin is trapped in the swamp, but he can not lose this war, his own future is in danger. In this situation, it may increase the level of conflict involving transnistria.

Nuclear

A new alarm bell is ringing in Odessa, a historic city and port of fundamental importance in the Black Sea, not far from Romania’s western border (hence the EU) and Moldova. (So ​​with Transnistria, there is an outpost of Russian soldiers). Three sophisticated hypersonic missiles, the Kinzels, were launched from a plane into a hotel. The other seven rockets destroyed a shopping center. According to CNN, the attack took place around 10.30pm on Sunday night, fortunately when the curfew was already in place and there were no people on the street, submarines and ships also took part. In all, there was talk of five buildings being destroyed, five injured and one dead. The attack on Odessa is increasingly raging for a number of reasons: the initial plan to reach the city by land from the east landed in Ukraine due to Ukrainian opposition; The Russian navy has suffered heavy losses (beginning with the sinking of primary Moscow) and is now seeking a counter-attack to undo the humiliation; Destroying the port of Odessa means isolating Ukraine, disrupting supply and destroying the economy.

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Finally, signs of tension from nearby Transnistria (Moldova’s last self-proclaimed republic), where an important arsenal is located, raise concerns that Putin is pursuing a larger goal: to occupy the entire south. Back to top, in the eastern Moldavian region, removes all sea views from Ukraine. U.S. intelligence confirms that Putin wants to extend the causeway to Transnistria, which controls the entire Black Sea coast. Is ready to strengthen the security of the area.

The siege

Meanwhile, according to Putin’s military, Operation Mariupol is still nearing completion (always in the south, but in the east): the city has been captured, but thousands of soldiers besieged at steel mills have not yet surrendered. This represents a problem for the Russians, both figuratively and practically, because it requires the use of forces that are useful elsewhere. According to information leaked by the Azov Regiment, there are still a hundred civilians inside. Not only that: Of the thousands who did not give up, many were injured, and Azov released photos of these players yesterday. Source images: People with amputated limbs or wounds are treated abnormally due to lack of medication. Kiev is moving in two directions to free a thousand soldiers, because if the message is sent that he will abandon Azov, that is, those who refuse to surrender, Zhelensky will also damage his image. According to Maxim Sour, former commander of the regiment, Canale 24 interviewed, “Kiev’s army is working on a military plan to rescue the militants at the steel plant”, “they do not have much time, so they are following the diplomatic line to expel them further”.

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Confidentiality, of course, is the type of possible intervention, but one thinks that the only way to intervene, even if the whole of the Azov Sea is controlled by the Russians, is an explosion by sea. The Ukrainian government also wants to try a different path of reconciliation with Moscow: with the determination to sell the steel mills but to allow the Azov troops to move to a third country that guarantees their safety. Last night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky analyzed: “His bodyguards are still in Mariupol. “We do not have the weapons or the forces to intervene at this time,” he told the Sky News. The situation is heartbreaking. For us, every day can be our last day.

Minskin threats

Tensions are also affecting the north: Belarus has brought special forces to the border (estimated at 20,000) for training (“this is a defensive mobilization,” Minsk said). Belarus is a key ally of Moscow, and the invasion of Ukraine began in that area, thanks to Minsk’s surrender to Moscow. Lukashenko warned: “Our army is capable of inflicting unbearable damage on its enemies.” At Izyum, 44 bodies were found under the rubble of a building destroyed by the Russians nearly two months ago. Anti-aircraft alarms sounded again across Ukraine yesterday evening.

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