According to many observers, the Kremlin aims to maintain a kind of status quo Ukraine. One of the signs of this was the willingness to accept the wheat contract. The Western Himars have pioneered Russian artillery, and this tends to prevent even the minor victories that the invading army has so far been able to gain in the Donbass at the cost of almost total destruction of towns and villages.
There is danger. If a situation where Russia rules Kherson region, Mariupol and the entire Luhansk region somehow stabilizes, the eventual recapture of Ukraine (which would be legal in the eyes of international law) could be viewed unfavorably in the West. . Many will say: “Now that there is some kind of ceasefire, does Ukraine want to fight again?”. Many will blame Ukraine for the continuation of the war. Aggressors will not recognize their right to defend themselves and join those who have been doing it for some time.
Let’s not forget who made the mistake
Beyond the issues of underlying international law, one fact stands out: once again the war in Ukraine cannot be said to be “lost” or “lost.” Of course, looking at the map it looks like it has lost significant areas, but the military movements in Kherson say that they will be on a mission to recover the first territory that came under Moscow’s control from February 24; Western arms support allows Kiev to be deterred and contain progress elsewhere; And, meanwhile, the Russian military capability is less and less.
To prevent us from assuming that Ukraine is somehow responsible for the ongoing war, it is important that Kiev’s forces capture at least the Kherson region as soon as possible. As a fixed point, to remind the world that what has happened since February 24 is a deep injustice, the inhumane and destructive approaches that have taken over parts of Russia: cities have been razed to the ground, from road signs and school books to Russification , not to mention of course the unnecessary violence, murders, rapes, raids and burnt corn in the fields. .
Wheat, actually. The world does not have time to ‘celebrate’ two separate treaties (Russia-Turkey and Ukraine-Turkey) to release 22 million tons of wheat from three Ukrainian ports, half earmarked for UN food aid programs in the poorest countries, the next morning Russia bombed the port of Odessa. Wheat will be produced. According to the already seen script for humanitarian corridors, every partial offer is always followed by trauma. According to some, this approach makes Russia a terrorist state. In any case, a country that has failed to win its war against international law.
Draghi’s fall was raised by the Russians
In this case, the government in Italy Mario Draghi. The country’s three historically pro-Russian parties (Lega, Forza Italia and Movimento 5 Stelle) pulled the government together, citing reasons acceptable to their respective voters, making them nothing more than electoral positions from the polling point of view. What is, probably, the most delicate moment internationally in decades. Ignoring the internal issues (beach resorts and taxi drivers celebrate, while one wonders if the PNRR is safe and has strong doubts, as we write, in ‘Bonus 200’), it is clear that the war in Ukraine has worn hard. Voters are accustomed to a pro-Russian narrative, starting with opposition to sanctions. Unsurprisingly, Draghi’s fall has been hailed by Russian media and politicians. Italy, the weak link in the liberal and Atlanticist Western bloc, may indeed fall back into the Russian orbit. There are signs of Ukrainophobia in the country, read the comments on Facebook, but note the objective difficulties Ukrainian refugees have in renting apartments (despite a one-year European temporary permit). Our countrymen may not have understood the extent of their suffering.
And winter is approaching. According to some, Putin is ready to threaten Europe with gas. For this reason, it is important not to give an inch on policy matters. Concessions to the occupying country would be even more unfair if they were motivated by levels of warming. From this perspective, the fall of one of the most assertive European governments in sector selection is not good news. Compared to what Ukrainians do at home, we may have to prepare for some winter sacrifices.
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